Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x5979…7fbd
world · 44 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$1,565 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,408 · open +$112
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,363
Realized+$1,408
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage31d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 8 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$838
14 days+$841
30 days+$1,418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 70¢ $643 $727 +$84 (+13%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 73¢ 80¢ $358 $393 +$34 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $322 $312 −$10 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $256 $278 +$22 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 53¢ $239 $258 +$20 (+8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 76¢ 63¢ $260 $217 −$42 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $166 $171 +$5 (+3%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 70¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 28¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 13 $378 −$52 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $350 +$153 +44%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $427 −$102 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $290 +$119 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $98 +$12 +12%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $162 +$98 +61%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 11 $171 −$12 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $34 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $163 +$29 +18%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $371 +$126 +34%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $351 +$153 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $618 +$281 +46%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $738 +$145 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 07 $1,026 −$110 -11%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 06 $114 −$1 -1%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 04 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $204 −$7 -3%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 31 $76 +$10 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? May 29 $6 $0 +5%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? May 29 $280 +$112 +40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $279 +$209 +75%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $284 −$47 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $647 +$250 +39%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 25 $136 +$34 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $22 +$2 +9%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? May 21 $20 +$9 +45%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $23 +$12 +53%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? May 15 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET May 13 $14 −$10 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 80% +$1,322
other 11% +$315
finance 9% −$108
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 63¢ $214 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 66¢ $7 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $3 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $3 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 68¢ $145 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 68¢ $71 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 68¢ $3 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 68¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $52 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $256 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $316 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $6 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $620 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $187 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $166 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 73¢ $358 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 84¢ $13 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 84¢ $27 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 84¢ $52 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 84¢ $27 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 84¢ $25 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 84¢ $27 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 84¢ $113 7h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 31¢ $57 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $504 7h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 37¢ $268 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.1% +1.4% 58% 47% +4.7%
≤30d 35 +9.5% -0.9% 63% 46% +8.8%
≤90d 36 +6.5% -3.6% 61% 44% +8.7%
all 36 +6.5% -3.6% 61% 44% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 44% +8.7%
10% -12.9% 33% -1.7%
15% -21.3% 28% -11.2%
20% -29.0% 8% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,363.28 · official $2,363.32 (match) · 392 history records