Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5978…4ada politics 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%12W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$6
sports 18% −$2
other 11% −$3
economics 6% +$1
crypto 6% $0
culture 3% $0
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 78 -7.0% -15.8% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses12 / 66
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage281d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $79 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $82 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $83 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $83 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $4 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $1 $0 -25%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $82 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 11 $81 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 31 $81 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $83 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $82 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $166 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 11 $85 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $172 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $82 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $82 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $3 $0 -11%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $79 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $2 $0 -11%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $2 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $79 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $78 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 17d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $83 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $83 112d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $83 117d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 117d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $76 121d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 121d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 122d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 122d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.05 · official $81.05 (match) · 296 history records