trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -3.0% | -12.2% | 50% | 50% | -13.8% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +7.0% | -3.2% | 71% | 57% | -4.8% |
| all | 8 | +10.5% | +0.0% | 75% | 62% | -0.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.0% | 62% | -0.3% |
| 10% | -9.6% | 25% | -9.9% |
| 15% | -18.3% | 0% | -18.6% |
| 20% | -26.3% | 0% | -26.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 66¢ | 66¢ | $67 | $66 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $44 | $43 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $264 | −$62 | -24% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 08 | $223 | +$40 | +18% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Apr 15 | $527 | +$14 | +3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 14 | $20 | +$5 | +25% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Apr 02 | $160 | +$18 | +11% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Apr 01 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 01 | $455 | +$74 | +16% |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Mar 23 | $337 | +$118 | +35% |