Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5973…5e13 world 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,285 (+14%) realized +$12,283 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%110W / 148L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,569
7 days+$1,528
14 days+$2,069
30 days+$1,993
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$7,044
politics 19% +$3,807
other 19% −$3,351
economics 4% +$4,733
tech 1% −$206
sports 1% +$22
finance 0% +$54
crypto 0% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +62.7% +47.2% 60% 40% +60.1%
≤30d 12 +45.5% +31.7% 58% 42% +27.0%
≤90d 104 +8.6% -1.7% 48% 38% +0.6%
all 258 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 35% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 35% +3.8%
10% -21.0% 23% -6.1%
15% -28.6% 19% -15.2%
20% -35.6% 15% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$104 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized+$12,283
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses110 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)258 / 263
History coverage279d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $161 $184 +$24 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $165 $134 −$32 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $86 $110 +$24 (+27%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No 37¢ 25¢ $17 $12 −$6 (-32%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 12¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $142 −$2 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $12 +$49 +410%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $665 +$1,519 +228%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $296 +$3 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $536 −$24 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $130 −$49 -37%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $163 +$29 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,877 +$541 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 08 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May? May 07 $208 +$56 +27%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? May 06 $67 +$121 +180%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 06 $1,677 −$822 -49%
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? May 01 $888 +$666 +75%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $4,839 +$537 +11%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? May 01 $7 −$2 -25%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Apr 29 $793 −$345 -44%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 28 $150 −$10 -7%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 28 $284 −$80 -28%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Apr 27 $190 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 25 $271 +$173 +64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $1,469 −$1,121 -76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $1,226 −$716 -58%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April Apr 24 $226 +$294 +130%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 24 $996 +$280 +28%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Apr 24 $92 −$92 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $182 +$75 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 24 $206 +$17 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $753 +$35 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 24 $208 +$20 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $328 +$266 +81%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $992 +$166 +17%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 23 $180 −$180 -100%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $1,426 −$379 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $466 −$6 -1%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Apr 21 $692 −$551 -80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $31 −$2 -6%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $786 +$91 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,259 −$188 -15%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 21 $249 +$10 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1,183 −$186 -16%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 20 $12 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 20 $19 −$6 -30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $38 −$19 -50%
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Apr 18 $50 −$20 -40%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 18 $103 −$11 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $19 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $18 1h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? SELL Yes $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $62 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $137 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 14¢ $234 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $332 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 18¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes $12 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,091 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 87¢ $816 2h
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 98¢ $22 5h
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $120 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $299 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $238 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 20¢ $73 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.62 · official $440.62 (match) · 1209 history records