Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5970…b570 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$73 (-3%) realized −$71 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$20
14 days−$19
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$123
politics 27% −$254
sports 9% +$264
world 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.4% -4.6% 50% 33% -10.9%
≤30d 10 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 20% -14.8%
≤90d 12 +2.7% -7.0% 58% 25% -13.6%
all 16 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 19% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 19% -14.4%
10% -21.8% 19% -22.6%
15% -29.4% 12% -30.1%
20% -36.3% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$65 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage148d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $215 $214 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $178 +$61 +34%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $215 −$157 -73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $315 −$64 -20%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $204 +$264 +129%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $328 −$124 -38%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 10 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 26 $126 −$32 -25%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 26 $152 −$45 -30%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 02 $120 +$7 +6%
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Represent Apr 01 $19 +$9 +48%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $151 +$1 +1%
US strike on Colombia by January 31? Feb 02 $60 $0 +0%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Jan 27 $20 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $98 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $78 42h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $41 46h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $36 46h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 46h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $35 46h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 46h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $251 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $112 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $56 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $108 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 50¢ $23 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $40 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $158 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $53 2d
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $275 2d
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia SELL No 100¢ $4 24d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid SELL Yes 66¢ $94 28d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 65¢ $107 28d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 87¢ $126 81d
US strike on Colombia by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $127 81d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.88 · official $213.88 (match) · 55 history records