Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x596b…21e5 crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$21,916 (+164%) realized +$186 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day3443.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$186
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -8.9% -17.6% 60% 2% -8.2%
≤30d 62 -8.9% -17.6% 60% 2% -8.2%
≤90d 62 -8.9% -17.6% 60% 2% -8.2%
all 62 -8.9% -17.6% 60% 2% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3443.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 2% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 0% -17.0%
15% -32.6% 0% -25.0%
20% -39.2% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
60.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$186
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 57
History coverage1d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day3443.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 12¢ 48¢ $12 $45 +$33 (+280%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 70¢ 52¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$9 -256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $220 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $241 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $328 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $447 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $371 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $268 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $347 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $349 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $323 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $391 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $228 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $382 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $254 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $458 +$55 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $480 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $490 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $393 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $196 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $317 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $277 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $323 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $285 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $66 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $160 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $189 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $257 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $197 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $244 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $252 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $237 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $207 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $125 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $128 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $185 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $139 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $117 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $155 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $114 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $156 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.48 · official $83.45 (match) · 3500 history records