Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x596a…7a0f sports 1250 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,689 (+24%) realized +$11,532 · open +$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%381W / 764L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$680est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4,255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$2,876
other 15% +$612
finance 0% −$232
world 0% +$50
crypto 0% −$8
politics 0% $0
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 22% -0.8%
≤30d 730 -37.9% -43.8% 22% 18% -15.2%
≤90d 1145 -12.3% -20.7% 33% 29% -3.4%
all 1145 -12.3% -20.7% 33% 29% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 29% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 29% -12.7%
15% -35.2% 28% -21.1%
20% -41.5% 27% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$30 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$4,255
Realized+$11,532
Unrealized+$157
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses381 / 764
Est. fees paid−$680
Open positions130
Markets (closed)1145 / 1250
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 130 History 1145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $322 $333 +$11 (+4%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 58¢ $179 $204 +$25 (+14%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 56¢ $32 $169 +$138 (+436%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 58¢ $145 $158 +$13 (+9%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 75¢ $18 $117 +$99 (+545%)
Will Tgr Haas achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 76¢ $153 $117 −$36 (-24%)
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winner ex-MANA eSports 80¢ 100¢ $92 $115 +$23 (+25%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $94 $106 +$12 (+13%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 60¢ $21 $99 +$78 (+362%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $93 $94 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+2%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $67 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $29 $64 +$36 (+124%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 18¢ $21 $63 +$43 (+206%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $85 $54 −$31 (-36%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $38 $53 +$15 (+39%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $39 $52 +$13 (+34%)
Will Oliver Bearman achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Liam Lawson achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Audi Revolut have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alpine have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Williams have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 49–50 °F on Decembe Jun 28 $11 +$18 +157%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +100%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $63 +$192 +302%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $44 +$23 +52%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $60 +$20 +32%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $89 +$50 +56%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 27 $162 −$3 -2%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 27 $286 −$58 -20%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 27 $91 +$219 +240%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort Jun 27 $261 −$255 -98%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $108 −$107 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $64 −$63 -98%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 27 $40 −$39 -98%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $18 +$19 +108%
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $78 +$57 +73%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $139 +$82 +59%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $69 −$68 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics - Game 4 Winner Jun 27 $2 +$1 +66%
Map Handicap: SHIN (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) Jun 27 $6 +$4 +72%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $47 −$45 -98%
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 27 $92 −$87 -94%
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 27 $23 −$19 -82%
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $201 −$197 -98%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 -97%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Wi Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: PRE (-1.5) vs Millennium Esports (+1.5) Jun 26 $134 −$132 -99%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $64 −$63 -98%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 26 $33 −$32 -98%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $176 +$39 +22%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 26 $39 +$189 +482%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $120 +$180 +150%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $249 +$209 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 20¢ $4 4m
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY No 45¢ $4 7m
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY No 45¢ $5 10m
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY No 45¢ $1 18m
Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 18m
Will Tgr Haas achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 99¢ $153 20m
Will Aston Martin achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY No 99¢ $50 20m
Will Cadillac achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 99¢ $50 20m
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20m
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20m
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 21m
Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 21m
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 21m
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 21m
Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 21m
Will Tgr Haas have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY No 99¢ $50 25m
Will Alpine have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austrian BUY No 99¢ $50 25m
Will Racing Bulls have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Au BUY No 99¢ $50 25m
Will Williams have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY No 99¢ $50 25m
Will Cadillac have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY No 99¢ $50 25m
Will Audi Revolut have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Au BUY No 99¢ $50 26m
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 27m
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27m
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 27m
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27m
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,255.30 · official $4,252.35 (match) · 3500 history records