Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x5968…3fc4
sports · 653 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,218 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,694 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14,531
Realized+$1,694
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses210 / 219
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions494
Markets (closed)429 / 653
History coverage7d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day455.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 494 History 429 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$727
7 days+$1,694
14 days+$1,694
30 days+$1,694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 82¢ 100¢ $1,698 $2,063 +$365 (+21%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $865 $915 +$50 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $418 $445 +$27 (+6%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 58¢ 73¢ $239 $300 +$61 (+26%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $274 $293 +$19 (+7%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 90¢ 74¢ $250 $208 −$43 (-17%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 55¢ 44¢ $252 $204 −$48 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 93¢ 94¢ $202 $203 +$1 (+1%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 38¢ $256 $173 −$83 (-32%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $108 $163 +$55 (+51%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $148 $150 +$2 (+2%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 93¢ 100¢ $140 $150 +$10 (+7%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 86¢ 97¢ $121 $137 +$16 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 39¢ 94¢ $56 $135 +$79 (+140%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No 94¢ 100¢ $114 $121 +$7 (+6%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 64¢ 90¢ $78 $111 +$32 (+41%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $99 $105 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 81¢ 100¢ $84 $102 +$19 (+23%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 72¢ 99¢ $74 $101 +$28 (+38%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $96 $101 +$5 (+5%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+5%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 81¢ 92¢ $86 $97 +$11 (+13%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 93¢ 99¢ $92 $97 +$5 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $35 −$9 -26%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 13 $8 +$1 +15%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 13 $19 +$9 +49%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $19 +$5 +25%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $125 −$125 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 13 $4 +$2 +37%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $4 +$4 +89%
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 +$15 +33%
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $18 +$12 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $74 +$188 +255%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $57 +$23 +42%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $69 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$6 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $46 +$3 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $95 +$8 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $14 +$87 +615%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -37%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $23 +$105 +450%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $25 +$95 +381%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $85 +$14 +16%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $28 +$2 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $270 +$80 +30%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $235-$240 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $47 +$15 +32%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $580? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $395? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 8 above $380? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +48%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $420? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +13%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $15 −$11 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$194
sports 31% +$1,335
world 12% +$150
weather 7% −$30
tech 4% +$323
politics 4% +$55
finance 4% −$149
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$188
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13m
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 61¢ $2 18m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 20m
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 31m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 41¢ $0 56m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 40¢ $2 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 46¢ $9 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 22¢ $2 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 29¢ $8 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 29¢ $3 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $6 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY No 38¢ $2 2h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $8 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 14¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $17 3h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $7 3h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $28 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 429 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 37% -0.2%
≤30d 429 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 37% -0.2%
≤90d 429 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 37% -0.2%
all 429 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 37% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover455.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 37% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 30% -9.7%
15% -27.9% 23% -18.5%
20% -35.0% 17% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,531.49 · official $14,533.88 (match) · 3500 history records