Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5965…d26d crypto 553 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$603 (-4%) realized −$1,679 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%250W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$52
14 days−$1,059
30 days−$1,668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,444
crypto 26% −$274
other 1% +$37
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 49% -7.5%
≤30d 516 -11.1% -19.6% 44% 39% -18.4%
≤90d 552 -11.5% -19.9% 45% 37% -18.4%
all 552 -11.5% -19.9% 45% 37% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 37% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 35% -26.2%
15% -34.6% 33% -33.3%
20% -41.0% 31% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$1,679
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses250 / 302
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)552 / 553
History coverage43d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $330 $328 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 236 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 +$28 +126%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$22 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $38 +$31 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $36 +$29 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $34 +$33 +97%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$13 +62%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $8 +$9 +112%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $34 −$34 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $13 −$12 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$10 +36%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $36 +$29 +79%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $29 +$31 +108%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $32 +$30 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $37 +$34 +91%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $35 +$30 +86%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $35 +$29 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $38 −$38 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $17 +$21 +119%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $19 +$13 +69%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $32 +$31 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $35 +$29 +82%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$20 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $23 +$12 +55%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $21 −$20 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $17 −$16 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $34 +$30 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$30 +146%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $71 −$59 -84%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $36 +$29 +82%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $38 +$34 +88%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $37 +$30 +80%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $35 +$32 +90%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $40 −$39 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $34 −$33 -99%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 41m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $14 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $22 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $12 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $26 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $16 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.22 · official $328.22 (match) · 2066 history records