Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5965…33b5 sports 989 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$592 (-1%) realized −$594 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%521W / 449L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days+$181
14 days+$45
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$989
sports 20% −$157
weather 18% −$662
politics 0% −$111
crypto 0% −$6
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 33% +30.0%
≤30d 233 -1.5% -10.9% 66% 47% -11.9%
≤90d 957 -8.1% -16.9% 54% 45% -12.7%
all 970 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 45% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 45% -12.7%
10% -24.9% 36% -21.0%
15% -32.2% 30% -28.7%
20% -38.8% 24% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$594
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses521 / 449
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions19
Markets (closed)970 / 989
History coverage156d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 970 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? No 73¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+37%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 27? No 73¢ 96¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? No 41¢ 28¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $297 +$12 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $94 +$179 +191%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $12 −$10 -87%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $6 +$6 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +156%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $111 +$20 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$4 +158%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$5 +139%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $53 +$38 +73%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $22 +$31 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $38 −$16 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $31 +$8 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $59 −$30 -51%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $55 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $38 +$11 +30%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $23 +$15 +65%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $45 −$22 -48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $38 +$6 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $408 −$233 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,620 −$56 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $64 −$40 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 07 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $278 +$34 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $43 +$13 +29%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $100 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $7 49m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $9 59m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $263 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $297 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $84 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $6 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $4 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 13d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $3 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $3 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $101 14d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $71 14d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 65¢ $3 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 14d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $11 14d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 14d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 22¢ $1 14d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 14d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.61 · official $80.62 (match) · 2615 history records