Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5965…f9db crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%39W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$6
crypto 8% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses39 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage535d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Feb 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $5,333 −$5 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 19 $27 $0 -1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Apr 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 03 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Feb 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ja Morant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 30d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 31d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $23 92d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $37 123d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 150d
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $51 151d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $5 180d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $18 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $47 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $23 211d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $42 212d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 242d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $34 243d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $34 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $24 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $48 335d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 366d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 395d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.99 · official $58.99 (match) · 105 history records