Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5964…207d other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$10
politics 29% −$16
sports 14% −$7
crypto 9% −$1
economics 7% +$4
culture 4% $0
world 4% −$6
tech 2% −$2
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 0% -1.9%
≤30d 45 -0.4% -9.9% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 96 -0.3% -9.8% 16% 0% -9.8%
all 126 -0.3% -9.8% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 102
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage107d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 18 $42 +$4 +8%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $121 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 03 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $119 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $40 −$1 -3%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $366 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $45 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $166 −$2 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $117 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $208 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $218 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $49 $0 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $46 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $212 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 19 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 19 $40 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 92¢ $42 10d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 95¢ $50 10d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 95¢ $50 11d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $52 11d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $52 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 11d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $60 11d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $60 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $45 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 12d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 12d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $53 12d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $60 12d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $60 12d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 12d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $37 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $38 13d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 96¢ $55 13d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $55 13d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 13d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 13d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 13d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 14d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $51 14d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.01 · official $49.01 (match) · 462 history records