Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5964…776b politics 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 860d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,108 (-14%) realized −$26,061 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%40W / 57L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,841per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,410
7 days−$9,488
14 days−$9,488
30 days−$9,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$10,531
world 26% −$7,847
other 25% −$7,603
crypto 7% −$3,457
sports 2% −$2,316
tech 1% +$5,626
finance 1% −$254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -61.4% -65.1% 25% 25% -57.9%
≤30d 12 -61.4% -65.1% 25% 25% -57.9%
≤90d 13 -56.1% -60.3% 31% 23% -52.3%
all 97 -18.3% -26.1% 41% 34% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 34% -22.7%
10% -33.2% 25% -30.1%
15% -39.6% 20% -36.8%
20% -45.6% 15% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,819) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,287 vs −$1,365 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

860d coverage
Net worth$4,108
Realized−$26,061
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses40 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage860d
Avg bet$1,841
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2,000 $1,967 −$33 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $850 $857 +$7 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $750 $745 −$5 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $555 $539 −$16 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1,379 −$1,350 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,981 −$1,945 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $360 −$350 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,039 −$3,000 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,484 −$1,450 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,298 +$1,002 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $761 −$750 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2,123 −$2,094 -99%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 11 $2,000 +$1,509 +75%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $2,000 +$162 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $2,304 −$2,304 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 11 $439 −$439 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 11 $416 −$416 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 10 $350 +$310 +89%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $500 +$333 +67%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $648 +$1,152 +178%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $2,360 +$1,096 +46%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 22 $450 −$450 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $300 −$300 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jan 15 $1,001 +$729 +73%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 01 $2,852 +$514 +18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 01 $6,029 −$6,029 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30? Dec 01 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Dec 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? Dec 01 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by June 30? Dec 01 $274 −$274 -100%
US strike on Iran on June  24? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 28 $3,000 +$522 +17%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jun 23 $5,905 −$5,905 -100%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 23 $755 −$755 -100%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 19 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
New Pope in 2025? May 09 $3,490 +$1,510 +43%
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days? May 05 $3,030 +$242 +8%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? May 05 $3,270 +$967 +30%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? May 05 $860 −$201 -23%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Apr 21 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy? Mar 10 $73 −$73 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6? Mar 10 $56 −$56 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode? Mar 10 $747 −$667 -89%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC? Mar 06 $3,729 +$164 +4%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3? Mar 06 $95 +$1,129 +1193%
Trump claims largest inauguration crowd ever? Feb 25 $196 −$196 -100%
100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before February? Feb 25 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 24 $1,705 −$1,705 -100%
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump? Jan 24 $3,419 −$3,419 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $756 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $569 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $861 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,042 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $1,379 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $513 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1,020 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,981 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $360 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3,039 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,484 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 50¢ $254 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $376 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $557 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 50¢ $508 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,747 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,741 6d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,000 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,000 95d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $320 98d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $439 98d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,984 98d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 98d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 98d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY Yes 9¢ $396 98d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 98d
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $406 116d
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 116d
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $24 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,107.59 · official $4,107.59 (match) · 662 history records