Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5964…9ff4 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 39L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
other 29% $0
politics 14% +$2
sports 5% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 56% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 62 -0.3% -9.8% 37% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage269d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $28 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $56 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $14 −$1 -6%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $2 +$1 +21%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jan 31 $4 $0 -13%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $2 $0 -12%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 05 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Nov 18 $2 $0 -18%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $27 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Oct 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 17 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Oct 14 $23 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $21 +$1 +4%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $14 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $14 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $15 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $13 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $13 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $14 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $13 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $15 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $26 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.34 · official $28.84 (match) · 240 history records