Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5964…35df weather 660 markets active 6d ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$716 (-6%) realized −$716 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%293W / 367L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day123.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$260
14 days−$647
30 days−$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$240
crypto 11% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -22.6% -29.9% 42% 41% -30.9%
≤30d 660 +6.4% -3.7% 44% 44% -12.7%
≤90d 660 +6.4% -3.7% 44% 44% -12.7%
all 660 +6.4% -3.7% 44% 44% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 44% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 44% -21.0%
15% -21.3% 43% -28.7%
20% -29.0% 42% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$716
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses293 / 367
Open positions0
Markets (closed)660 / 660
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day123.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 660 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records