Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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59 0x5963…dff1 crypto 980 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$776 (-4%) realized −$783 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%473W / 505L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,065
other 1% −$2
sports 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 50% -6.1%
≤30d 89 -10.2% -18.8% 48% 44% -18.0%
≤90d 978 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 38% -14.7%
all 978 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 38% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 38% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 28% -22.9%
15% -33.4% 19% -30.3%
20% -40.0% 13% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$783
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses473 / 505
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)978 / 980
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 978 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $83 $92 +$8 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.76 · official $91.76 (match) · 3500 history records