Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5963…76c8 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate49%22W / 23L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$3
other 15% +$2
weather 6% +$5
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% +$1
tech 3% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 18 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 11% -9.6%
all 45 -2.7% -11.9% 49% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 9% -9.0%
10% -20.4% 4% -17.8%
15% -28.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses22 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage491d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $34 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $57 −$5 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $96 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $53 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $46 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $16 −$6 -36%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $7 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $31 +$11 +35%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $4 $0 -5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 03 $17 $0 -2%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 01 $17 $0 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $1 $0 -2%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 31 $17 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Mar 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $19 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 11? Mar 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 8? Mar 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5? Mar 07 $12 +$5 +39%
San José State vs. Utah State Mar 04 $11 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $4 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $5 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $33 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $9 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $16 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $30 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $26 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 47¢ $25 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $57 31h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $51 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $27 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $22 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $26 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $24 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records