Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5960…6d42 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$531 (-7%) realized −$646 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%25W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day90.3pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$201
other 8% −$304
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -15.8% -23.8% 51% 41% -20.1%
≤30d 49 -15.8% -23.8% 51% 41% -20.1%
≤90d 49 -15.8% -23.8% 51% 41% -20.1%
all 49 -15.8% -23.8% 51% 41% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 41% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 37% -27.7%
15% -37.7% 29% -34.7%
20% -43.8% 16% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$83 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$987
Realized−$646
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses25 / 24
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage5d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day90.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 80¢ $310 $419 +$109 (+35%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 94¢ $280 $325 +$45 (+16%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 56¢ 46¢ $111 $92 −$19 (-17%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 29¢ 40¢ $32 $43 +$11 (+35%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 12¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $73 +$7 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $63 +$84 +135%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $45 +$128 +283%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $252 +$88 +35%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $167 −$8 -5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 +$31 +39%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$8 -38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$70 -69%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $426 −$365 -86%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $108 +$41 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $486 −$348 -72%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $30 −$28 -93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $281 +$138 +49%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $16 +$4 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $385 +$2 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $231 −$51 -22%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $209 +$131 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $93 −$53 -57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $151 +$49 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $163 −$161 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $28 −$27 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$14 +54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $189 +$31 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $194 −$11 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $210 +$234 +111%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $149 +$55 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $269 +$25 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$4 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $14 +$6 +41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $113 +$58 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $38 +$12 +32%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $285 +$159 +56%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$52 +171%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $175 −$174 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $93 −$85 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $17 0m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $13 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $5 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $12 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $15 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $7 2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $4 2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 4m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $5 4m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $17 9m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 36¢ $11 9m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $15 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $3 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $3 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $2 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $29 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $3 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $4 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $1 10m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $10 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.86 · official $984.89 (match) · 466 history records