Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x595f…1ff8 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate22%7W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$9
world 31% −$3
other 11% −$9
economics 10% $0
tech 6% +$19
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.1% -13.2% 38% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 -2.4% -11.7% 18% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 29 -1.9% -11.3% 17% 3% -9.2%
all 32 -4.7% -13.8% 22% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses7 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage526d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 -5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 -42%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $42 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $42 −$7 -17%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $81 −$2 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $147 +$19 +13%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $19 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $225 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $225 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $232 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 31 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $225 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $134 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-14? Jan 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $45 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $12 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $33 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $46 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records