trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 57¢ | 98¢ | $20 | $35 | +$15 (+71%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 7¢ | 1¢ | $22 | $5 | −$17 (-78%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 57¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-98%) |
| Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | Up | 21¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET | Down | 62¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | Up | 17¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | Up | 21¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics | Athletics | 86¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $6 | +$3 | +43% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | Jun 10 | $2 | −$2 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | Jun 10 | $3 | −$1 | -22% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | Jun 10 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | Jun 10 | $1 | +$1 | +140% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics | Jun 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | -22.1% | -29.5% | 33% | 20% | -33.9% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -22.1% | -29.5% | 33% | 20% | -33.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -22.1% | -29.5% | 33% | 20% | -33.9% |
| all | 15 | -22.1% | -29.5% | 33% | 20% | -33.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.5% | 20% | -33.9% |
| 10% | -36.3% | 20% | -40.2% |
| 15% | -42.4% | 20% | -46.0% |
| 20% | -48.1% | 13% | -51.3% |