Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x595f…7ef7
other · 21 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$50
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 6 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 57¢ 98¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+71%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $22 $5 −$17 (-78%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 62¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Athletics 86¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +140%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 64% −$17
other 27% +$13
crypto 5% −$3
sports 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 20h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 51¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 20h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 22h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $1 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 46h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 20% -33.9%
≤30d 15 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 20% -33.9%
≤90d 15 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 20% -33.9%
all 15 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 20% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 20% -33.9%
10% -36.3% 20% -40.2%
15% -42.4% 20% -46.0%
20% -48.1% 13% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.75 · official $49.75 (match) · 48 history records