Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
59 0x595b…1621 crypto 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+4%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%125W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.9% -1.4% 50% 50% -10.0%
≤30d 9 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 44% -13.4%
≤90d 148 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 49% -7.3%
all 240 -2.0% -11.3% 52% 50% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 50% -7.1%
10% -19.8% 48% -15.9%
15% -27.6% 47% -24.1%
20% -34.7% 43% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses125 / 115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage94d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 29 $16 −$13 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 28 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 28 $10 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 28 $25 +$21 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 27 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 27 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 27 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 27 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 27 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 26 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 26 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 26 $20 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 25 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3AM ET Apr 25 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$9 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 28 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 28 $15 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 28 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 28 $5 +$5 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $6 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $18 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 431 history records