Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x595b…8b54 crypto 529 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$28 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%320W / 206L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$72
world 0% $0
other 0% −$4
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.7% +14.6% 75% 62% -3.6%
≤30d 38 +20.2% +8.8% 68% 63% -11.5%
≤90d 191 +1.5% -8.2% 61% 48% -10.4%
all 526 -4.7% -13.7% 61% 44% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 44% -10.2%
10% -22.0% 24% -18.8%
15% -29.5% 14% -26.6%
20% -36.4% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses320 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)526 / 529
History coverage145d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +33%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 24 $1 +$7 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 24 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 24 $6 +$1 +13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 24 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 20 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 18 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 18 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 13 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 13 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 13 $11 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 13 $29 −$20 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.10 · official $5.10 (match) · 1529 history records