Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
59 0x595a…bca8 world 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,108 (+5%) realized +$968 · open +$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate72%122W / 48L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$24
14 days−$952
30 days−$638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$621
other 11% +$26
economics 10% +$807
finance 4% −$128
crypto 2% −$396
sports 1% +$15
tech 1% +$15
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.8% -0.7% 60% 40% -7.5%
≤30d 52 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 35% -15.9%
≤90d 120 +10.2% -0.3% 72% 45% -8.5%
all 170 +11.2% +0.6% 72% 42% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 42% -5.8%
10% -9.0% 18% -14.9%
15% -17.8% 12% -23.1%
20% -25.8% 10% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$47 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized+$968
Unrealized+$140
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses122 / 48
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)170 / 180
History coverage158d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 67¢ 86¢ $353 $452 +$99 (+28%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 64¢ 90¢ $141 $198 +$57 (+40%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+4%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-49%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 64¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+49%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 34¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+179%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $67 +$5 +7%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 +$35 +164%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$32 +116%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Jun 15 $45 +$11 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $33 −$7 -20%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$16 +77%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $108 +$7 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $41 −$18 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $54 +$72 +134%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $208 +$23 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 13 $167 +$15 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $270 −$110 -41%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $245 +$23 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $565 −$364 -64%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $235 −$50 -21%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $166 −$157 -95%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $399 −$6 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $419 −$376 -90%
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? Jun 03 $36 +$5 +14%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 01 $100 −$4 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $497 +$42 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $528 +$105 +20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $717 +$80 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $36 −$34 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $167 +$30 +18%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $300 +$37 +12%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 30 $120 +$20 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $126 +$9 +7%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 28 $177 −$44 -25%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $100 −$8 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $201 +$14 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $283 +$17 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $332 −$115 -34%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest May 25 $301 −$47 -16%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $129 +$39 +30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $126 +$7 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $75 +$54 +72%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $222 +$9 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $98 +$14 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $175 −$25 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $198 +$19 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $371 +$46 +12%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $84 +$32 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 93¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 93¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $95 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $21 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $60 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 31h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $27 31h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY No 78¢ $15 43h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY No 78¢ $1 43h
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 43h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $123 44h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $36 44h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 25¢ $12 44h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 27¢ $26 44h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $21 45h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $20 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 100¢ $114 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $120 45h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY No 77¢ $13 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 61¢ $22 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 93¢ $108 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 93¢ $88 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $978.90 · official $978.20 (match) · 1067 history records