Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x595a…ded4 crypto 37 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-8%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$7
other 9% −$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 27% -22.5%
≤30d 37 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 27% -22.5%
≤90d 37 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 27% -22.5%
all 37 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 27% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 27% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 19% -29.9%
15% -41.9% 14% -36.7%
20% -47.6% 11% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.43 · official $1.43 (match) · 106 history records