Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x595a…c76b crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%83W / 1L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$8
other 2% −$4
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 -4.2% -13.3% 95% 0% -9.7%
all 84 -0.8% -10.3% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses83 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage240d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 05 $3 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 25? Jun 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? May 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? May 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? May 01 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? Apr 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? Apr 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? Apr 04 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? Mar 24 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 12? Mar 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 4? Mar 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 1? Mar 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 25? Feb 26 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 14? Feb 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on February 3 Feb 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on February 1? Feb 02 $96 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Feb 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $102,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $104,000 on January 23? Jan 24 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $87 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $4 7d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $4 7d
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 93¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $103 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $104 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $102 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $95 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $3 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 61d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $3 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $106 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 75d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 67¢ $4 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $109 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $110 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $97 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $104 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $99 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $98 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $102 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.28 · official $108.28 (match) · 177 history records