Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5954…21d7 crypto 818 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate68%552W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$424
7 days−$428
14 days−$468
30 days−$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$938
sports 23% +$682
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -29.3% -36.0% 48% 46% -30.5%
≤30d 163 -18.3% -26.1% 51% 43% -20.7%
≤90d 817 -5.7% -14.7% 68% 39% -10.2%
all 817 -5.7% -14.7% 68% 39% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 39% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 22% -18.8%
15% -30.3% 13% -26.7%
20% -37.1% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses552 / 265
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)817 / 818
History coverage55d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 817 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 82¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$10 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$13 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$5 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$13 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$12 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $8 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 74¢ $106 14h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 69¢ $101 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.13 · official $4.71 (match) · 2752 history records