Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
59 0x5952…db2f other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$478 (+15%) realized +$478 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip
Net edge+67%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$3,143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$2,884
sports 38% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+73.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +92.2% +73.9% 46% 46% +71.6%
≤30d 13 +92.2% +73.9% 46% 46% +71.6%
≤90d 13 +92.2% +73.9% 46% 46% +71.6%
all 13 +92.2% +73.9% 46% 46% +71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.9% 46% +71.6%
10% +57.3% 38% +55.2%
15% +42.1% 38% +40.2%
20% +28.1% 38% +26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +143% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$747 vs −$235 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3,143
Realized+$478
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $297 −$290 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $286 −$280 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $308 +$2,843 +923%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $204 +$330 +162%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 27 $100 −$98 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $102 +$297 +291%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $267 −$267 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $220 +$719 +326%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $424 −$413 -97%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $558 +$89 +16%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $131 +$206 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 78¢ $534 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $204 3h
Croatia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 3h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $164 5h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $203 5h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 72¢ $466 25h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 61¢ $466 25h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $220 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $424 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $263 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $152 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 48¢ $265 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 36¢ $60 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 36¢ $60 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,142.75 · official $3,142.75 (match) · 37 history records