Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x594d…ceaf
sports · 109 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
−$35 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$80
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses30 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage221d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 33¢ 36¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+11%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on November 5? No 57¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-06? No 78¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Nuggets Spurs 57¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-07? No 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 56¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? No 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Senators vs. Stars Senators 43¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Pacers Hawks 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Bulls Bulls 49¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Nets 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Clash Group Omega Natus Vincere 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-15? No 60¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A REKONIX 39¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
76ers vs. Bulls 76ers 52¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Bilibili Gaming 74¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Houston Astros 39¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) Jazz 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Rangers vs. Panthers Rangers 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 7? No 52¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Panthers 54¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Red Wings vs. Rangers Red Wings 57¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Stars Golden Knights 41¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-25? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $58 −$2 -4%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $514 −$8 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 29 $1,073 +$5 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $463 −$5 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $636 −$14 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $63 −$2 -4%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $330 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,300 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $190 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $150 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $195 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $320 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $485 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $430 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $290 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 27 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $240 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $620 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $120 $0 +0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $150 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $410 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $160 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $550 −$1 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $280 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $150 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $610 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $400 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $240 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $550 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 18 $12 +$8 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 54% −$45
other 39% −$107
sports 5% +$130
world 1% −$15
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $68 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $36 2h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $48 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $58 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 62 -3.0% -12.2% 15% 10% -9.8%
all 107 -3.1% -12.3% 28% 25% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 25% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 25% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 22% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 22% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.13 · official $80.13 (match) · 493 history records