Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
59 0x594d…4876 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-10%) realized −$157 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$163
other 48% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.0% -24.0% 57% 57% -22.7%
≤30d 7 -16.0% -24.0% 57% 57% -22.7%
≤90d 7 -16.0% -24.0% 57% 57% -22.7%
all 7 -16.0% -24.0% 57% 57% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 57% -22.7%
10% -31.3% 57% -30.1%
15% -37.9% 57% -36.8%
20% -44.0% 14% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$76 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 93¢ $60 $151 +$91 (+151%)
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 44¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$50 +49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $151 −$149 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $109 +$50 +46%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $71 +$38 +53%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$12 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $41 2m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $61 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 63¢ $152 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $118 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $159 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $109 29h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $109 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $2 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $30 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 17¢ $17 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 54¢ $41 2d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $71 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 48¢ $43 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.48 · official $190.29 (match) · 16 history records