Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x594c…cfd8 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$178 (-20%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days−$172
14 days−$229
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$91
crypto 41% −$74
sports 16% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.5% -3.7% 40% 30% -31.4%
≤30d 15 -18.6% -26.3% 27% 20% -33.4%
≤90d 15 -18.6% -26.3% 27% 20% -33.4%
all 15 -18.6% -26.3% 27% 20% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 20% -33.4%
10% -33.4% 13% -39.8%
15% -39.8% 7% -45.6%
20% -45.7% 7% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage23d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $102 −$82 -80%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $7 +$31 +442%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $221 −$51 -23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$14 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $175 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 05 $126 −$49 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $37 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $7 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $7 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 99¢ $21 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 79¢ $102 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $92 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 84¢ $78 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 17¢ $77 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 30¢ $143 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $17 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $30 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $20 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $76 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $11 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET BUY Up $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET BUY Up $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET BUY Up $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET BUY Up $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET SELL Down $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET BUY Down $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $69 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records