Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x594c…f437 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate69%82W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +7.4% -2.9% 76% 39% -8.2%
≤30d 119 +11.4% +0.8% 69% 41% -12.4%
≤90d 119 +11.4% +0.8% 69% 41% -12.4%
all 119 +11.4% +0.8% 69% 41% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 41% -12.4%
10% -8.8% 32% -20.8%
15% -17.6% 24% -28.4%
20% -25.7% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$24 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses82 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage21d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$10 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$59 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $60 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$21 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $60 +$20 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $60 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $61 −$59 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$98 +158%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $60 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $60 +$18 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $60 −$59 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$20 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $63 −$59 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$13 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$9 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$29 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$6 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$39 +376%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $60 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $60 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $61 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $60 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $61 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $62 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $60 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $60 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $60 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $60 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $63 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $60 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $30 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records