trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 33% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -2.9% | -12.1% | 25% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -4.5% | -13.6% | 20% | 0% | -12.3% |
| all | 27 | -1.0% | -10.5% | 30% | 4% | -10.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.5% | 4% | -10.9% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 0% | -19.4% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 0% | -27.2% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -34.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $38 | $38 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 24 | $41 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 23 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 27 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $4 | −$1 | -20% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $44 | −$5 | -12% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 30 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Dec 16 | $42 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | Oct 24 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 19 | $4 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | Sep 29 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 29 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Solana dip to $140 in August? | Aug 23 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 22 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? | Aug 22 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 22 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Aug 22 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 22 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 21 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 20 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 20 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? | Aug 20 | $5 | $0 | -0% |