Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:57:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x594b…3193 crypto 459 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$42 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%237W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$47
14 days+$34
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$9
crypto 42% −$87
other 7% −$7
world 2% $0
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +107.1% +87.3% 47% 41% +10.0%
≤30d 127 +13.2% +2.4% 50% 31% -7.1%
≤90d 447 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 35% -13.4%
all 447 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 35% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 35% -13.4%
10% -22.8% 23% -21.7%
15% -30.3% 17% -29.2%
20% -37.1% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses237 / 210
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions12
Markets (closed)447 / 459
History coverage76d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+71%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -24%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1494%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 14 $2 +$11 +550%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$19 +1845%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $2 −$2 -86%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $31 +$5 +15%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 13 $2 +$2 +87%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $7 +$4 +61%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +17%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $8 +$10 +126%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +41%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA - Who wins the toss? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -73%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 06 $18 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$3 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11m
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 40¢ $2 21m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 21¢ $1 39m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 23¢ $1 53m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 24¢ $3 55m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 16¢ $3 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 16h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 1¢ $0 35h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 3¢ $1 35h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 50¢ $4 35h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 48¢ $4 36h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 46h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 39¢ $10 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 21¢ $2 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 34¢ $5 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 47¢ $5 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 75¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.85 · official $16.85 (match) · 1565 history records