Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:04:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x594a…fc57 politics 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$23
politics 35% −$22
sports 7% +$97
economics 3% −$2
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +3.5% -6.4% 6% 6% -9.5%
all 115 +5.1% -4.9% 9% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 8% -9.4%
10% -14.0% 6% -18.1%
15% -22.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -30.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×16.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage115d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $783 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,270 −$1 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $343 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $703 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $337 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $373 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 16 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $341 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $370 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $294 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $321 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $332 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $379 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $315 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $315 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $278 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $377 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $317 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $372 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,432 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 21 $273 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $872 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 4h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 4h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $38 9d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 9d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 10d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 13d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 14d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 14d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 21d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 21d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $311 27d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $311 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $343 28d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $343 29d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $365 30d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $366 30d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $329 31d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $329 32d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $332 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 381 history records