Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5946…6b2b world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%14W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$7
other 20% +$1
politics 9% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.1% -11.4% 25% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 17 -1.7% -11.0% 24% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 17 -1.7% -11.0% 24% 0% -10.7%
all 50 -0.0% -9.6% 28% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -10.1%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses14 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage294d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 70¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $32 −$6 -18%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $32 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $36 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $22 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 24 $8 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $1 $0 +24%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $1 $0 -8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $2 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $8 $0 +4%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $24 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 59m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 26h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $26 38h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 45h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $21 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $3 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $24 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 68¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $17 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.67 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records