trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $6 | +$7 | +113% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$2 | +197% |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | Oct 11 | $30 | −$17 | -55% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? | Oct 10 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? | Oct 09 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? | Oct 07 | $70 | +$17 | +24% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September? | Sep 25 | $5 | +$4 | +75% |
| Will Solana reach $225 in September? | Sep 09 | $5 | +$1 | +26% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Sep 05 | $20 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Solana reach $240 before 2026? | Aug 26 | $5 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? | Aug 25 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? | Aug 25 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August? | Aug 24 | $5 | +$2 | +41% |
| Will Solana reach $230 in August? | Aug 23 | $1 | $0 | +50% |
| Will Solana reach $210 in August? | Aug 22 | $1 | $0 | +29% |
| US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? | Aug 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Aug 22 | $5 | +$1 | +25% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? | Aug 22 | $3 | +$3 | +89% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August? | Aug 22 | $6 | +$5 | +77% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Aug 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Ethereum above $4400 on August 13? | Aug 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Ethereum above $4400 on August 15? | Aug 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Ethereum above $4200 on August 13? | Aug 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15? | Aug 10 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +76.5% | +59.7% | 75% | 50% | +35.8% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +76.5% | +59.7% | 75% | 50% | +35.8% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +76.5% | +59.7% | 75% | 50% | +35.8% |
| all | 26 | -12.5% | -20.9% | 54% | 42% | -27.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.9% | 42% | -27.8% |
| 10% | -28.4% | 42% | -34.7% |
| 15% | -35.4% | 27% | -41.0% |
| 20% | -41.7% | 19% | -46.8% |