Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x593a…b9f4 other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$371 (-17%) realized −$366 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate74%37W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$337
sports 34% +$52
crypto 5% −$102
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -12.8% -21.1% 74% 36% -31.1%
≤30d 50 -12.8% -21.1% 74% 36% -31.1%
≤90d 50 -12.8% -21.1% 74% 36% -31.1%
all 50 -12.8% -21.1% 74% 36% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 36% -31.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 10% -37.7%
15% -35.6% 8% -43.7%
20% -41.9% 2% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$47 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized−$366
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses37 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions42
Markets (closed)50 / 92
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? No 78¢ 76¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? No 86¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? No 91¢ 90¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? No 90¢ 90¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? No 88¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? No 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? No 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? No 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? No 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +14%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +41%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$19 -37%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 91¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 94¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 94¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 91¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 86¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 86¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 92¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 92¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 91¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 91¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 86¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 92¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 88¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 86¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 86¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY No 93¢ $5 9h
Qatar leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 86¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 89¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 86¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 93¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 90¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 90¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.80 · official $583.80 (match) · 209 history records