Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5939…4d07 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-2%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days−$2
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$197
world 45% −$354
sports 4% +$14
politics 3% $0
culture 1% +$21
economics 0% −$10
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +32.4% +19.8% 100% 100% +19.8%
≤30d 6 +21.0% +9.4% 67% 67% -1.0%
≤90d 7 +13.5% +2.7% 57% 57% -8.1%
all 30 -0.6% -10.1% 57% 30% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 30% -11.9%
10% -18.7% 27% -20.3%
15% -26.6% 17% -28.0%
20% -33.8% 10% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$62 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage238d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 26 $158 +$51 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 19 $150 −$53 -35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $243 −$36 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $194 +$45 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi Jun 02 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $120 +$74 +61%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 15 $206 −$65 -31%
Solana Up or Down on December 25? Mar 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Mar 18 $110 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $409 −$386 -94%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $392 +$17 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $381 +$8 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $375 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $377 +$3 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $298 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 06 $128 +$97 +75%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 02 $313 −$8 -3%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 31 $210 +$103 +49%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 23 $292 +$58 +20%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $23 −$10 -41%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $8 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 3? Jan 03 $112 +$49 +44%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 20 $70 +$21 +30%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 27 $7 −$4 -57%
Will Solana dip to $120 in November? Nov 26 $100 −$37 -37%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 22? Nov 24 $111 $0 +0%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Nov 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $95 +$4 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $91 +$8 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $46 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $92 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $60 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $99 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 45¢ $37 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $37 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 55¢ $207 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 61¢ $243 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 81¢ $239 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 65¢ $194 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY JD Gaming 62¢ $4 35d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 62¢ $58 39d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 62¢ $62 39d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 13¢ $9 56d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 38¢ $33 73d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 62¢ $54 96d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 32¢ $14 101d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 52¢ $23 108d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $23 118d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $409 118d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $409 118d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $392 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $388 126d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $381 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records