Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5938…7788 weather 992 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-4%) realized −$192 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate66%657W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$21
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$213
crypto 5% −$18
sports 3% −$3
other 1% −$5
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -1.4% -10.8% 89% 4% -10.5%
≤30d 588 -4.6% -13.7% 78% 15% -13.2%
≤90d 991 -7.1% -16.0% 66% 22% -13.5%
all 991 -7.1% -16.0% 66% 22% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 22% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 15% -21.7%
15% -31.4% 11% -29.3%
20% -38.1% 8% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$192
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses657 / 334
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)991 / 992
History coverage52d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 991 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner Kinoa 92¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 +$2 +14%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $13 +$1 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$12 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 46m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $14 14h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 36h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 98¢ $14 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 37h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $13 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $13 41h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7 41h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 41h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL No 77¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2494 history records