Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5937…ae8d weather 530 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,066 (+22%) realized +$2,145 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%175W / 339L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$551
14 days+$826
30 days+$1,199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,873
sports 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 37% +11.0%
≤30d 211 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 38% +10.1%
≤90d 514 -12.1% -20.4% 34% 30% +8.7%
all 514 -12.1% -20.4% 34% 30% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 30% +8.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 23% -1.7%
15% -35.0% 20% -11.2%
20% -41.4% 18% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$6 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized+$2,145
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses175 / 339
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)514 / 530
History coverage50d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $116 $128 +$12 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? Yes 48¢ 37¢ $84 $64 −$19 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21? Yes 76¢ 44¢ $54 $32 −$22 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 21? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 21? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? Yes 66¢ 37¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? Yes 69¢ 22¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 21? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 21? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 321 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 +$15 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $83 +$22 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $15 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $140 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $186 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$13 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 +$11 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$22 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $165 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$11 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 19 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $85 +$177 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$79 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 +$9 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$35 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $149 +$23 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 32m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 89¢ $48 32m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 30¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 91¢ $117 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 78¢ $83 14h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 14h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $140 21h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 90¢ $15 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.05 · official $326.73 · 1215 history records