Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5936…7eda other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate88%15W / 2L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2
tech 35% +$3
world 9% $0
finance 9% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.3% +0.7% 100% 100% +0.7%
≤30d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 25% -7.7%
≤90d 13 -2.2% -11.5% 85% 23% -8.2%
all 17 -1.6% -11.0% 88% 18% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 18% -8.3%
10% -19.5% 6% -17.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses15 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage137d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $26 +$3 +11%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $55 −$1 -1%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 22 $26 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $27 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $22 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Knicks vs. Thunder Apr 29 $2 +$1 +32%
Clippers vs. Bucks Apr 29 $3 $0 +14%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $5 $0 +10%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Mar 29 $4 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Mar 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Feb 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $3 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 06 $9 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 06 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $29 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $26 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $28 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $27 26d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 97¢ $26 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $26 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 85¢ $27 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $28 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 94¢ $27 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 93¢ $27 34d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 98¢ $22 48d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 48d
Knicks vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 76¢ $2 79d
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 91¢ $5 79d
Clippers vs. Bucks BUY Clippers 88¢ $3 79d
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? BUY No 100¢ $13 129d
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 129d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 100¢ $10 129d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 137d
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 137d
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 137d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.48 · official $48.48 (match) · 36 history records