Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
59 0x5936…19aa crypto 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%73W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$10
weather 3% +$1
other 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.5% -16.3% 43% 43% -42.8%
≤30d 42 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 43% -14.5%
≤90d 156 -15.3% -23.3% 47% 42% -11.9%
all 156 -15.3% -23.3% 47% 42% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 42% -11.9%
10% -30.7% 37% -20.3%
15% -37.4% 29% -28.0%
20% -43.5% 24% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses73 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage85d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 29 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 29 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 29 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 29 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 29 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 29 $1 +$5 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 25 $5 +$13 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 25 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 25 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 25 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 25 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 25 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 25 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 11 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 11 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 11 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 11 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $6 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records