Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5936…89ae other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 24% $0
politics 14% −$3
sports 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.8%
all 34 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage320d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $46 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $155 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $86 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 27 $14 $0 -1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 18 $17 −$3 -20%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 09 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8? Aug 05 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $45 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $33 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $12 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $37 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $26 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $38 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $16 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records