Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5935…facc other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$101
world 13% −$69
crypto 12% −$46
sports 10% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.9% -5.1% 47% 47% -0.5%
≤30d 18 -0.9% -10.4% 44% 44% -1.4%
≤90d 18 -0.9% -10.4% 44% 44% -1.4%
all 18 -0.9% -10.4% 44% 44% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -1.4%
10% -18.9% 44% -10.8%
15% -26.8% 44% -19.4%
20% -33.9% 39% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage11d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $31 $41 +$10 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$7 -88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 +$15 +46%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$25 +138%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $61 −$13 -21%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $90 −$69 -77%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$11 +51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $89 −$27 -30%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +227%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$39 -78%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$53 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $49 20h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $44 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $32 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $38 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $33 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $38 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.25 · official $64.25 (match) · 52 history records