Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5934…2949 politics 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%8W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$3
politics 29% −$6
sports 21% −$2
culture 6% −$1
world 5% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 83 -7.9% -16.6% 10% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 1% -9.7%
10% -24.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -31.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -38.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses8 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage380d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 09 $205 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $68 $0 +1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $280 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $77 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 04 $143 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $2 $0 -22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $109 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $278 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $4 $0 -11%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 26 $66 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -77%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $76 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $1 $0 -25%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $74 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $71 $0 +0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $74 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 07 $1 $0 -18%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 31 $76 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 18 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $65 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 30d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $69 117d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $69 124d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $67 136d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $67 145d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $68 149d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $68 150d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $68 152d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 153d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 154d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 156d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $68 156d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $68 157d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 157d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 158d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $67 158d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $67 160d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 162d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 163d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $69 165d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $67 166d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $67 168d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 169d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $69 171d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 171d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 171d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 350 history records