Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
59 0x5933…ecb7 other 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,023 (+12%) realized +$1,144 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$4,536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$733
other 19% −$22
crypto 6% +$229
world 2% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +42.5% +28.9% 32% 32% +16.4%
≤30d 28 +42.5% +28.9% 32% 32% +16.4%
≤90d 28 +42.5% +28.9% 32% 32% +16.4%
all 28 +42.5% +28.9% 32% 32% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.9% 32% +16.4%
10% ← realistic here +16.6% 32% +5.3%
15% +5.3% 32% -4.9%
20% -5.0% 32% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$49 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4,536
Realized+$1,144
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions48
Markets (closed)28 / 76
History coverage2d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 54¢ $400 $377 −$23 (-6%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $350 $351 +$1 (+0%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 49¢ 54¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $75 $68 −$7 (-9%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 8¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $46 $57 +$11 (+24%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 6¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $6 +$94 +1653%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $508 +$466 +92%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $767 +$523 +68%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$160 +156%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $297 −$250 -84%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $183 −$80 -44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $76 +$52 +68%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$6 -12%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $29 +$149 +517%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $30 −$1 -4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $41 −$11 -26%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $201 −$191 -95%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $405 +$228 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 19m
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 31m
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 33m
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl BUY Yes 49¢ $102 34m
Will Belgium be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 43m
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $65 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $101 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $121 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 5h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 5h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 5h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 33¢ $51 5h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $25 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $555 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 50¢ $147 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 76¢ $419 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 7h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,536.30 · official $4,536.39 (match) · 127 history records