Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5930…012b other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,748 (-1%) realized −$1,748 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,577per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$35
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1,692
politics 37% −$102
sports 11% +$20
tech 2% −$2
world 1% −$3
culture 1% −$4
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -8.6% -17.3% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 92 -4.8% -13.9% 8% 1% -9.8%
all 145 -2.1% -11.4% 19% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 10% -10.2%
10% -19.9% 9% -18.8%
15% -27.7% 8% -26.7%
20% -34.7% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,748) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$26 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$1,748
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,577
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $295 $295 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,890 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $306 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,612 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,228 −$6 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $3,028 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,101 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 14 $406 +$3 +1%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,589 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7,573 −$8 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5,418 −$6 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,688 −$4 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $4,383 −$6 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $86 −$86 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,906 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $6,963 −$7 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5,186 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $447 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $657 +$1 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,864 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $63 +$104 +165%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $8,718 −$8 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $2,709 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,854 −$5 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $4,287 −$5 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $3,464 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $295 47m
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 3h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $306 4h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $306 6h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $608 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $609 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,000 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,405 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,407 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,599 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,601 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,609 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,611 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,600 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,603 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,099 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,101 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $406 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,610 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,612 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,603 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,605 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,587 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,589 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,619 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,621 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.08 · official $295.08 (match) · 519 history records