Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
59 0x5930…e55f crypto 26 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$116
sports 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 26 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 26 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 50% -15.3%
all 26 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 50% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 50% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 42% -23.4%
15% -29.5% 15% -30.8%
20% -36.4% 8% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$81 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $141 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $205 −$202 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $203 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $203 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $264 +$83 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $168 +$43 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $304 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$56 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$30 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $117 −$100 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $203 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $205 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $202 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $283 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $204 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $258 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $203 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $201 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $168 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $202 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $201 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records