Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
59 0x592b…672c crypto 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+20%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$359
crypto 40% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -63.5%
≤30d 4 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -63.5%
≤90d 4 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -63.5%
all 4 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 50% -63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 50% -63.5%
10% -25.4% 50% -67.0%
15% -32.6% 50% -70.2%
20% -39.2% 50% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$250 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $147 −$141 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $77 +$70 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$29 +61%
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald Jun 23 $407 −$359 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $147 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $48 2h
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald SELL Michele Ribecai 3¢ $48 2h
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald BUY Michele Ribecai 34¢ $1 3h
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald BUY Michele Ribecai 20¢ $205 3h
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald BUY Michele Ribecai 31¢ $201 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records