Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5928…1f1d sports 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-5%) realized −$197 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate69%49W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$59
14 days−$244
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$187
crypto 19% −$81
other 8% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.6% +5.5% 91% 64% +6.3%
≤30d 71 -7.9% -16.6% 69% 45% -13.2%
≤90d 71 -7.9% -16.6% 69% 45% -13.2%
all 71 -7.9% -16.6% 69% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 45% -13.2%
10% -24.6% 27% -21.5%
15% -31.9% 14% -29.1%
20% -38.6% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$36 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses49 / 22
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage14d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $83 $80 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $80 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $57 +$26 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $47 +$9 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $37 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +8%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$10 -41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$32 +170%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $16 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $135 −$119 -88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $14 +$4 +26%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $13 +$1 +9%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$1 +9%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $32 −$32 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $22 +$11 +48%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $127 −$80 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $140 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $91 +$25 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $111 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $91 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $80 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $101 +$8 +8%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $84 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $57 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $57 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $47 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $47 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $37 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 68¢ $20 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $18 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 88¢ $14 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $14 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $24 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $24 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $20 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $20 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $19 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $51 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $51 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 36¢ $19 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $16 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 11¢ $16 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $135 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.11 · official $80.11 (match) · 191 history records